Schwacher Euro stärkt Konjunktur

Der schwache Euro und das QE-Programm der EZB treiben das Wachstum in Euroland. Die EU-Kommission erwartet im laufenden Jahr 1,5 Prozent, das sind 0,2 Punkte mehr als noch vor drei Monaten vorhergesagt.

Schlechter sieht es für Griechenland aus. Laut Frühjahrs-Progrnose kommt das Krisenland 2015 nur auf 0,5 Prozent Wachstum, erwartet wurden zunächst 2,5 Prozent.

Die insgesamt bessere Prognose erklärt die Kommission wie folgt:

Europe’s economies are benefitting from many supporting factors at once. Oil prices remain relatively low, global growth is steady, the euro has continued to depreciate, and economic policies in the EU are supportive.

On the monetary side, quantitative easing by the European Central Bank is having a significant impact on financial markets, contributing to lower interest rates and expectations of improving credit conditions. With the overall fiscal stance in the EU broadly neutral – neither tightening nor loosening – fiscal policy is also accommodating growth. Over time, the pursuit of structural reforms and the Investment Plan for Europe should also bear fruit.

As a result, real GDP in 2015 is now expected to rise by 1.8 % in the EU and by 1.5 % in the euro area, respectively 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points higher than projected three months ago. For 2016, the Commission forecasts growth of 2.1 % in the EU and of 1.9 % in the euro area.

Domestic demand is the main contributor to GDP growth, with an acceleration of private consumption expected this year and a rebound of investment next year.

Mehr dazu auf der Website der Kommission; die Pressemitteilung steht hier