Brexit: What the EU would rather not say

What happens after the debacle of the Brexit vote in London? Officially, the EU Commission is still keeping a low profile. But in reality, Brussels is already planning two unpopular measures. Chancellor Merkel is also active.

The Chancellor has offered British Prime Minister May help if the EU deal fails in the British House of Commons, the “Sun” reported, citing government circles.

This includes persuading Irish Prime Minister Varadkar to agree to an end date for the controversial emergency solution for the border to the British province of Northern Ireland.

Merkel has denied that. The Chancellor had made no assurances beyond the resolutions of the EU summit and the letter of the EU presidents Tusk and Juncker.

But what is certain is that she is in contact with Varadkar and is looking for ways out. We had already reported on this in this blog (“Brexit: Merkel and Varadkar want to meet May”).

It is also clear that Varadkar is the biggest obstacle to a compromise (see “The strong man is called Varadkar”) – and that Merkel has the greatest interest in preventing a hard Brexit without a treaty.

This would further dampen the already weakened Brexit fears of the German economy; the recession rumours are getting louder every day (see also “The First Brexit Victims”).

Moreover, in the event of a “no deal”, the EU would be forced to do two extremely unpopular – and counterproductive – things: it would set up controls at the border with Northern Ireland – and cut the EU budget!

Without a deal, the UK’s EU contribution would no longer be secure, so the budget for 2019 would probably be cut immediately. In view of the economic worries, that would be a shot in the arm!

In order to secure the “inviolable” internal market, the EU would also establish a “hard” border with Northern Ireland. It would do exactly what it wanted to prevent so far – the Good Friday Agreement would be endangered!

But that is how it is in the neoliberal EU: if you have to decide between peacekeeping and the internal market, the market is more important …

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